Principais Conclusões
- Gold dropped sharply to $3,222.77, breaching the $3,300 support amid strong U.S. dollar and improved risk sentiment.
- Price action is now below the 20-day SMA and approaching the lower Bollinger Band support at $3,191.
- RSI has dipped to 48, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
- Critical support lies at $3,211; a breakdown may expose the $3,100 level.
- All eyes are on U.S. CPI data and Fed commentary this week for potential catalysts.
Market Dynamics and Recent Performance
Gold prices plunged at the start of the week, with spot XAU/USD shedding over 3% in a single session to close around $3,222.77, extending last week’s bearish reversal. The move followed optimism around U.S.-China trade developments, which reduced appetite for safe-haven assets. Concurrently, a firmer U.S. dollar exerted added pressure, making gold more expensive for international buyers.
This shift in sentiment broke below the key psychological support of $3,300, marking a significant technical development. It’s also worth noting that broader macro conditions, including the anticipation around upcoming U.S. inflation data and ongoing Fed commentary, are keeping traders cautious heading into the mid-month.
Technical and Fundamental Influences
On the daily chart, gold has dropped below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and is testing the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands, now positioned around $3,314.25. Price action slicing below this level suggests growing downside risk. The lower Bollinger Band near $3,191.63 could act as the next support if momentum continues south.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is now at 48, a neutral zone but with a bearish tilt. It’s slipped below the 50 mark for the first time in over a month, suggesting that bullish momentum is waning. This aligns with a weakening trend on price structure, where lower highs are forming despite previous strong rallies.
Key support sits around $3,211, which was the session low and aligns with a previous consolidation area from early April. A decisive breakdown here could expose gold to a further fall toward the $3,150–3,100 range.
On the fundamental side, this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release in the U.S. could be pivotal. A higher-than-expected reading would likely increase expectations of prolonged high interest rates, further hurting non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve speakers may add fuel to the fire if they maintain a hawkish stance.
Geopolitical stability in the Pacific, particularly improved U.S.-China relations, continues to sap demand for gold. However, any flare-up in tensions or surprise economic weakness could swiftly revive safe-haven buying.
Looking Forward
The upcoming week is expected to be critical for gold’s short-term trajectory. If the price holds above $3,211, a bounce back toward the $3,300–3,330 zone is possible, but technicals show that bears currently have the upper hand. A close below $3,191 could be the signal for a broader correction down to the $3,100 mark.
Traders should be on high alert for Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print and any forward guidance from Fed officials. Volatility could spike, especially if the data deviates from expectations.
Until then, momentum indicators and price action are aligned to suggest that gold may remain under pressure unless a strong catalyst reverses current market sentiment.
