重要なポイント
- EUR/USD opened the week with a bearish gap, trading near 1.1220, influenced by U.S.-China trade optimism.
- The pair’s momentum remains bearish, with key support at 1.1215 and resistance at 1.12429.
- Technical indicators suggest potential for further declines, but a retest of the cup-and-handle pattern’s upper boundary may indicate a bullish continuation.
- Upcoming U.S. inflation data and European GDP figures will be critical in determining the pair’s direction.
- Investors should remain vigilant, as economic data and geopolitical developments could significantly influence the EUR/USD pair’s trajectory.
市場の動向と最近のパフォーマンス
The EUR/USD pair commenced the week with a bearish tone, opening with a downward gap and trading near 1.1220. This movement was influenced by renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade discussions, which bolstered the U.S. dollar’s strength. The announcement of a 90-day tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China further supported the dollar, leading to the euro’s decline to a one-month low below 1.1100 before a modest recovery to 1.1130.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven appeal has been under scrutiny, with over 55% of FX strategists expressing concerns about its reliability amid fiscal and trade uncertainties. Despite these concerns, the dollar’s strength persists, exerting pressure on the euro.
テクニカルおよびファンダメンタルの影響
Technically, the EUR/USD pair has been exhibiting a downward momentum. On May 12, the pair’s momentum remained bearish, with short positions below 1.12429 targeting levels at 1.12139, 1.11967, and 1.11743. Conversely, long positions above 1.12429 aimed for targets at 1.12600, 1.12754, and 1.12929.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been indicating overbought conditions, suggesting potential for further declines. Moreover, the pair’s recent drop to 1.1215 aligns with the upper boundary of a cup-and-handle pattern, a bullish continuation signal. This retest, coupled with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and the pair remaining above the 50-week moving average, suggests a possible resumption of the uptrend, potentially rising to the psychological level of 1.1400.
Fundamentally, upcoming U.S. inflation data, expected to show a slight increase, and European GDP figures will be pivotal in determining the pair’s direction. The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, coupled with its cautious stance on rate cuts, adds another layer of complexity to the euro-dollar dynamics.
今後の見通し
In the coming week, the EUR/USD pair’s trajectory will largely depend on economic data releases and geopolitical developments. A sustained break below the 1.1215 support level could lead to further declines, while a rebound above 1.12429 may signal a potential recovery. Investors should closely monitor U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve communications for cues on interest rate directions, which could significantly impact the pair’s movement.
