重要なポイント
- EUR/USD is trading at 1.1248, holding gains above short-term support at 1.1220.
- RSI on the daily chart sits at 52, suggesting mildly bullish but unconfirmed momentum.
- The pair faces key resistance at 1.1270–1.1300; a breakout is needed for upside continuation.
- Macro uncertainty around U.S. inflation and Fed policy keeps directional bias muted.
- Watch for a break above 1.1270 or a rejection that brings 1.1200 and 1.1160 back into play.
市場の動向と最近のパフォーマンス
EUR/USD enters the new week trading around 1.1248, marking a continuation of the modest rebound seen over the past few sessions. This recovery comes after a corrective phase that bottomed near 1.1160, as the US Dollar softened in anticipation of critical Federal Reserve communications and macroeconomic data releases. The move higher has been orderly, but not without hesitation.
Despite the slight bullish tone, the pair remains technically challenged. The area just above 1.1250 has acted as a cap in recent sessions, and traders appear wary of committing to a stronger trend ahead of clarity on U.S. rate policy. The broader picture still reflects an uneasy balance between Eurozone resilience and persistent U.S. inflation concerns, which have lifted Treasury yields and supported the greenback on dips.
テクニカルおよびファンダメンタルの影響
The EUR/USD is showing tentative bullish signs but lacks conviction. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 suggests a neutral-to-slightly-positive momentum shift. The price has edged above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, but it still trades below the key resistance cluster around 1.1270–1.1300, which includes the March swing high and trendline resistance.
Price action also remains sensitive to the 100-day SMA, currently hovering near 1.1220, which may now serve as initial support. Bulls will need a clean break and daily close above 1.1270 to confirm any sustainable upside. Failure to push higher could see renewed selling pressure back toward the 1.1200 handle or even the 1.1160 zone.
On the macro front, the pair remains caught in a push-pull dynamic. While recent U.S. data points like consumer sentiment have come in weaker, inflation expectations continue to run hot—keeping the Fed’s next move in question. This uncertainty is echoed in the tightening trading ranges across major USD pairs, suggesting traders are awaiting decisive macro signals before placing large bets.
今後の見通し
The coming week brings fresh opportunities for directional movement, particularly from:
- Federal Reserve commentary: Any shift in tone regarding rate cuts or inflation could drive USD volatility.
- Eurozone PMI and U.S. economic prints: These will help gauge the divergence—or lack thereof—between the two economies.
- Technical breakout or rejection: The 1.1270–1.1300 zone is key. A break higher opens the door to 1.1380, while failure could renew downside toward 1.1200 or lower.
Volatility may remain subdued until a catalyst sparks a breakout from the current consolidation, but the pair is nearing a technical crossroads that could define the next few weeks.
