Key Takeaways
XAU/USD starts the week in the mid $4,600s. Reuters reported spot gold at $4,658.90 on Monday, while Investing showed spot trading with a day range of $4,601.01 to $4,706.25 and a previous close of $4,676.42.
Momentum has improved materially from the March washout. Investing’s daily technical snapshot shows RSI at 58.065, MACD at 0.38, and ADX at 52.864, with all listed moving averages from MA5 through MA200 on buy signals.
The main near term bull bear line is the Fibonacci pivot at $4,697.03. Above it, classic resistance stands at $4,702.98, $4,712.20, and $4,718.15, while support sits at $4,687.81, $4,681.86, and $4,672.64. The 200 day moving average at $4,548.90 remains the key structural floor.
Gold is still caught between two opposing forces. The Iran war and Hormuz risk support safe haven demand, but strong U.S. jobs data, higher yields, and a firmer dollar are limiting the upside by reducing near term Fed easing expectations.
This week’s main scheduled catalysts are the Fed minutes and the U.S. CPI report. Reuters says investors are watching whether the oil shock is now feeding into inflation strongly enough to keep the Fed sidelined for longer.
Market Dynamics and Recent Performance
Gold has already staged a meaningful rebound from the late March panic low. Reuters reported spot at $4,784.22 on April 1, the highest level since March 19, before Monday’s retreat pulled the metal back into the mid $4,600s after the stronger than expected payrolls report restored support for the dollar.
That leaves XAU/USD in a much better position than it was over the previous three Mondays, but not yet in a full breakout. The market has recovered well off the March collapse, yet it is still trading below the recent rebound high near $4,784 and remains highly sensitive to the oil, inflation, and rate story coming out of the Middle East shock.
Technical and Fundamental Influences
Technically, the daily structure is far healthier than it was in late March. RSI is back near 58 rather than sitting in oversold territory, MACD has turned positive, and ADX above 52 suggests the rebound has had genuine directional strength. The 5 day moving average at $4,687.08 and the 50 day moving average at $4,686.67 are almost identical, which makes the $4,687 area the immediate balance point for the week’s opening trade.
The broader structure is also still constructive. Investing shows the 100 day moving average at $4,635.83 and the 200 day moving average at $4,548.90, both below current spot, which means the longer trend is still intact as long as gold holds above the mid $4,500s. A separate Investing analysis on Monday also highlighted nearby resistance around the 20 EMA at $4,744 and support around the 100 EMA at $4,623.80 in gold futures, reinforcing the view that bullion is trading inside a recovery band rather than in a fresh impulsive surge.
On the macro side, the same paradox that hurt gold in March is still in place. Reuters says gold slipped on Monday because the stronger U.S. jobs report lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, dimming hopes for quick rate cuts. The Fed’s March 18 statement kept the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% and said inflation remains somewhat elevated.
At the same time, gold can still benefit when de escalation lowers oil and softens the dollar. Reuters reported on April 1 that bullion climbed sharply as ceasefire hopes improved and the dollar weakened. But renewed threats around Hormuz have since pushed oil back above $100 and revived the inflation concern that can limit gold’s usual safe haven upside.
Looking Forward
For this week, the clearest technical trigger is the pivot zone around $4,697. A daily hold above that area would keep the path open toward $4,703, $4,712, and $4,718, with the broader upside reference still sitting near last week’s $4,784 rebound high. A softer CPI print or credible de escalation in the Middle East would make that path more plausible. This scenario analysis is my inference from the current technical levels and this week’s macro calendar.
On the downside, slipping back under $4,687, $4,682, and $4,673 would warn that momentum is fading. A deeper move lower would then bring the $4,635 area and eventually the $4,549 long term average back into focus. Beyond the data, the single biggest headline risk remains Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If that passes without real progress, gold may again struggle with the same problem seen in March, where geopolitical fear supports bullion on one side but higher oil and higher real yield expectations cap it on the other.
