主要ポイント
- EUR/USD is holding above 1.1763, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the February-to-March decline, a structurally important floor for the near-term bull case.
- The RSI-14 is reading 58.79 on the daily chart, sitting above its moving average and confirming upside momentum remains intact without entering overbought territory.
- The ECB held rates at its April 30 meeting but markets are pricing in over 50 basis points of tightening by year-end, with a greater than 75% probability assigned to a first 25-basis-point hike in June.
- The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% in April, while US CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year in March, the highest since May 2024, driven almost entirely by energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict.
- The April US CPI print, due Monday May 12, is the week’s primary catalyst and could dictate whether EUR/USD tests 1.1831 or slides back toward the 1.1680 pivot zone.
- Trump’s threat to impose significantly higher tariffs on EU goods unless Brussels eliminates barriers by July 4 introduces a geopolitical ceiling for sustained euro strength.
- Parabolic SAR dots remain positioned below current price action, confirming a bullish structural mode following the recovery from the March trough near 1.1476.
市場動向と直近のパフォーマンス
EUR/USD enters the week of May 12 trading at 1.17798, consolidating after recovering sharply from the March 2026 trough near 1.1476. The pair has gained roughly 4.7% over the past twelve months and posted a 0.72% recovery over the most recent thirty-day period, reflecting a constructive bias tempered by geopolitical and macro uncertainty.
Following a surge to multi-year highs near 1.2050 in early February 2026, the pair sold off sharply as the Middle East conflict rattled risk sentiment, pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel, and triggered safe-haven dollar buying, carrying EUR/USD down to lows around the 1.1400 zone before buyers re-emerged. Since reclaiming the 1.1700 handle, the pair has pushed into the 1.17–1.18 zone where it now encounters its first meaningful resistance cluster.
At the April 30 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.0% and its main refinancing rate at 2.15%, a unanimous decision with a hawkish undertone. Eurozone flash inflation surged to 3.0% in April on elevated energy costs, and President Lagarde confirmed the bank is “certainly moving away” from its baseline scenario. On the dollar side, last week’s nonfarm payrolls release coincided with a sharp deterioration in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, pulling Treasury yields lower and allowing EUR/USD to firm toward 1.1780 heading into the weekend.
テクニカルおよびファンダメンタル要因
The Parabolic SAR is issuing a bullish reading with dots positioned beneath recent candle bodies, confirming short-term upward momentum from the post-March recovery. The RSI-14 registers 58.79 at the close, above its visible moving average and in neutral-to-bullish territory with room to extend toward the 65–70 zone before overbought conditions become a concern. Recent sessions have produced small-bodied candles with limited directional follow-through, consistent with consolidation ahead of a major data catalyst.
Fibonacci analysis of the February peak near 1.2050 and the March trough at 1.1476 places the current price just above the 50% retracement at 1.1763, indicating retracement buyers have consistently absorbed dip selling. The next upside target is the 61.8% level at 1.1831, aligning with the 1.1850 resistance zone widely identified as the near-term breakout trigger. Above there, the 76.4% retracement at 1.1914 precedes the critical 1.1974–1.2000 resistance band. On the downside, the 50-day EMA near 1.1685 and the structural pivot at 1.1680 form the first defensive line; a daily close below it would expose 1.1550, with the March low at 1.1476 as the ultimate downside anchor. The 200-day SMA tracking near 1.17 provides an additional dynamic floor between these levels. The 50-day SMA remaining above the 200-day SMA confirms the medium-term bullish trend structure, though the narrowing gap between them signals softening momentum.
The dominant fundamental driver is central bank policy divergence. The Fed holds at 3.50%–3.75%, underpinned by March CPI of 3.3% year-over-year — the sharpest monthly acceleration since June 2022 — with core inflation at 2.6%, leaving no near-term case for easing. The ECB, by contrast, is edging toward tightening: markets are fully pricing at least two 25-basis-point hikes by year-end, with a June move above 75% probability. ECB board member Piero Cipollone has publicly stated that the likelihood of a near-term rate increase has risen materially, and any compression of the rate differential would create a structural tailwind for EUR/USD. Complicating that picture, eurozone Q1 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter against the US annualised pace of 2.0%, while the ECB projects full-year eurozone growth of only 0.9% and inflation of 2.6% for 2026. Brent holding above $100 per barrel raises eurozone import costs and compresses industrial margins, while Trump’s July 4 tariff ultimatum to the EU adds a geopolitical ceiling that could rapidly erode the pair’s constructive footing if escalated.
今後の見通し
The US April CPI release on Monday morning is the week’s defining event. Following March’s 3.3% year-over-year headline, any moderation in April would reinforce dollar weakness and push EUR/USD through 1.1800, bringing the 1.1831 Fibonacci target into immediate focus. A hotter print, particularly in core CPI, would strengthen the Fed’s extended-pause narrative and send the pair back toward the 1.1680–1.1700 support zone. Thursday’s PPI and retail sales data provide corroborating signals on the inflation and consumption picture, while ECB commentary hinting at June hike preparedness would act as a secondary catalyst for a breakout through 1.1850.
For a sustained bullish continuation, EUR/USD requires a convincing daily close above 1.1850 to open a run toward the 1.1974–1.2000 zone. The Parabolic SAR and RSI readings support further upside attempts, and the structure above 1.1680 remains intact. A rangebound outcome between 1.1680 and 1.1850 is the base case, however, until this week’s data flow delivers a decisive resolution.
