主要ポイント
- XAU/USD is trading at $4,580 on Monday, down 0.72% on the day, extending a second consecutive weekly loss as hawkish dissent at the Fed and stalled US-Iran peace negotiations weigh on sentiment.
- The daily RSI(14) sits at 40.78, below its 46.04 signal line, confirming waning momentum and technically confirming bullish exhaustion from the April recovery.
- The MACD reading of -11.754 against a signal of -47.917 and histogram of -36.163 reflects persistent bearish pressure across the medium-term moving average structure.
- The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% with four notable dissents, while CME FedWatch shows a 94.9% probability of no change in June, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate environment that structurally limits non-yielding gold.
- March PCE accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year, core PCE reached 3.2%, and Q1 GDP printed at 2.0%, collectively giving the Fed little cover to shift dovish.
- World Gold Council data shows Q1 2026 global gold demand hit a record $193 billion, with central bank net purchases of 244 tonnes, providing a structural demand floor.
- Key resistance stands at $4,650 to $4,700, with major supply concentration near $4,800. Primary support is seen at $4,510, then $4,380.
- The week’s most market-moving catalysts will be April Services PMI and JOLTS on May 5, ADP on May 6, initial jobless claims on May 7, and April Nonfarm Payrolls alongside University of Michigan inflation expectations on May 8.
市場動向と直近のパフォーマンス
Gold enters the week of May 4 under renewed selling pressure, with XAU/USD trading at $4,580 on Monday in a session that opened at $4,625, briefly touched a high of $4,629, and has so far compressed to a low of $4,573, registering a loss of 33 points at the time of writing. The move extends deterioration building since the pair’s all-time high of $5,595 on January 29, 2026, which capped a rally that carried gold from approximately $3,800 in early November 2025 to record territory in roughly twelve weeks. The corrective phase that followed was severe, bottoming near $4,150 in early April before a recovery attempt lifted price back toward $4,800. With two consecutive weekly losses now registered, the recovery structure is fragile, and Monday’s open well above the close signals distribution at higher prices.
The US-Iran military conflict, which has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively disrupted since hostilities escalated earlier this year, has produced a paradoxical environment for the metal. While the geopolitical risk premium initially surged gold to record highs, the sustained oil supply disruption has fuelled persistent inflation across major economies, pushing central banks to retain restrictive stances and, in some cases, consider tightening further. That pivot from safe-haven bid to inflation-driven rate anxiety has repositioned gold as a structurally headlined asset trading against yield competition.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% but four policymakers dissented, arguing that the oil price shock from the Iran conflict requires the central bank to step back from any easing bias entirely. Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair ended not with a pivot but with a clear hawkish lean embedded in the committee’s voting record. Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while deferring nuclear negotiations initially lifted sentiment Friday and allowed gold to recover above $4,600, but President Trump’s subsequent rejection of the proposal and reaffirmation of the naval blockade reversed those gains as the new week opened.
テクニカルおよびファンダメンタル要因
The daily chart presents a technically deteriorating picture across multiple indicator frameworks. With RSI(14) at 40.78 tracking below its 46.04 signal line, momentum is in a bearish cross configuration and approaching oversold territory without generating the capitulation reading that historically precedes sustained bounces. RSI never reclaimed the 50 neutral line with conviction after the April low, reflecting structural weakness in the rebound, and the 5.26-point signal-line gap suggests continued downside unless a catalyst-driven reversal produces a decisive crossback above 46.
The MACD confirms this read. The MACD line at -11.754, signal at -47.917, and histogram at -36.163 remain fully negative. While the MACD line has partially recovered from its most extreme bearish reading during the April selloff, the absence of a bullish crossover and sustained histogram negativity indicate the 12-period and 26-period EMA relationship is still bearish. From a moving average perspective, the 21-day SMA near $4,725 and 100-day SMA near $4,751 both sit above spot as layered resistance, while the 50-day SMA is converging around $4,673 and the 200-day SMA is approaching $4,656, adding further overhead density. A descending trendline from the January 29 high reinforces this resistance cluster and has capped every meaningful recovery attempt since mid-February.
Fibonacci retracement analysis drawn from the January high at $5,595 to the April swing low near $4,150 defines the critical near-term levels. Current price near $4,580 sits between the 23.6% retracement at $4,491 and the 38.2% level at $4,702. The bulls need a sustained close above $4,702 to signal renewed trend strength, while the 50% retracement at $4,873 aligns with prior swing highs and represents the gateway back to a bullish medium-term posture. A failure below $4,491 and particularly a break under $4,380 would reopen the path toward a retest of the $4,150 April low.
Bollinger Band compression below the 20-period midline reinforces the bearish bias, while declining ATR from the March and April volatility peaks suggests range-bound behaviour is unlikely to break without an external macro catalyst. Parabolic SAR dots are tracking above price given the sequence of lower highs and lower closes. On-balance volume has underperformed price recovery, indicating that institutional accumulation is not yet sufficient to sustain a rally, and recent candlestick sessions show indecisive bodies with long upper wicks at the $4,620 to $4,650 resistance range, confirming supply distribution rather than absorption.
On the fundamental side, the inflationary feedback loop from the Iran conflict remains the dominant pressure point. March PCE accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year from 2.8% in February, with the monthly print at 0.7%. Core PCE reached 3.2% annually, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The advance Q1 GDP estimate of 2.0% annualised growth signals sufficient economic resilience to keep the Fed on hold. Ten-year Treasury yields above 4.4% create a formidable opportunity cost against non-yielding bullion. The World Gold Council’s Q1 2026 data offers the structural counterbalance: total demand including OTC investment reached 1,230.9 tonnes, quarterly demand value hit a record $193 billion, central banks net purchased 244 tonnes, and bar and coin demand of 474 tonnes marked the second-highest quarterly figure on record, up 42% year-on-year. A Reuters analyst survey places the 2026 median gold price forecast at $4,916 per ounce, reflecting broad conviction that the structural bull case remains intact even as near-term momentum is under pressure.
今後の見通し
The week ahead carries a dense calendar that will likely determine whether XAU/USD stabilises above the $4,510 to $4,560 support cluster or resumes its corrective path toward $4,380. April Nonfarm Payrolls on May 8, alongside the unemployment rate and University of Michigan inflation expectations, is the headline risk event. A strong labour market print and elevated consumer inflation expectations would cement the higher-for-longer narrative and apply additional headwind to gold. A softer payrolls reading could revive speculation about an earlier policy shift and provide the catalyst for a technical recovery above the $4,650 to $4,702 Fibonacci resistance zone. April Services PMI and JOLTS on May 5, ADP on May 6, and initial jobless claims on May 7 will build the progressive picture ahead of that, with the May 12 CPI print extending the directional impulse into the following week.
Geopolitically, the US-Iran front retains outsized market relevance. Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would reduce oil price pressure and shift the policy calculus toward a weaker dollar and reduced rate hike expectations, even as it simultaneously reduces the safe-haven premium. The absence of progress keeps oil elevated, central banks hawkish, and gold’s upside compressed. The path of least resistance remains cautiously to the downside while price holds below the $4,650 to $4,700 Fibonacci corridor and RSI stays sub-50. A weekly close above $4,700 would constitute a meaningful technical shift targeting the $4,800 resistance and the 50% retracement at $4,873. Failure below $4,510 opens the corrective sequence toward $4,380 and ultimately the $4,260 pivot zone. The balance of evidence favours broad consolidation within the $4,380 to $4,800 range, with momentum indicators and the rate environment providing a modest bearish lean into the critical data releases ahead.
