Key Takeaways
- Gold pulled back slightly to $3,355 amid profit-taking after last week’s NFP-driven rally.
- Technicals favor bulls: breakout above the 50- and 100-day SMAs, with resistance at $3,364 and support at $3,346.
- S. labor market softness and 81% odds of a September rate cut underpin bullish sentiment.
- Citi raised its three-month gold forecast to $3,500/oz within a $3,300–$3,600 range.
- Eyes are on ISM Services PMI, jobless claims, and Fed speeches for the next directional catalyst.
Market Dynamics and Recent Performance
Gold opened the week under modest pressure, with spot prices easing 0.1% to $3,355 per ounce on Monday as traders booked profits following last week’s sharp rally driven by disappointing U.S. labor data. Concurrently, U.S. gold futures ticked up 0.4% to $3,412.80, reflecting ongoing safe-haven demand even amid a slight pullback. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded after snapping a three-session decline, pressured by a stronger-than-expected uptick in Treasury yields: the 10-year note climbed to 4.25%, its highest level in a week, on August 4, reinforcing headwinds for bullion.
Technical and Fundamental Influences
Technically, gold has cleared critical moving-average and trendline hurdles. Last week’s breakout above the 50-day SMA near $3,342 and the 100-day SMA at $3,332 signaled a bullish regime shift, with immediate resistance pegged at $3,364. Momentum indicators remain constructive: the RSI sits in a neutral territory at 52, and MACD lines have crossed decisively bullish. On the downside, the old channel top near $3,346 now offers a key support zone.
Fundamentally, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls added only 73,000 jobs versus the 110,000 consensus, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, fueling speculation that the Fed could ease policy as soon as September, markets now price in an 81% probability of a rate cut that month. Trade tensions remain elevated after fresh 35% tariffs on imports from key partners unsettled investors, reinforcing gold’s haven attribute. Citi has since lifted its three-month target to $3,500, with an expected range of $3,300–$3,600 per ounce, citing a softer U.S. outlook and sustained macro uncertainty.
Looking Forward
Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. data calendar, where Tuesday’s ISM Services PMI (consensus 51.5) and Thursday’s jobless claims (forecast 221,000) will test the resilience of the economic recovery. A miss in services activity or a rise in claims could reignite the recent gold advance, targeting first $3,394 and then the June peak at $3,472. Conversely, stronger-than-expected readings may spur a corrective pullback toward $3,346–$3,342. Beyond domestic data, Fed-speak from regional presidents will be scrutinized for clues on policy timing, while geopolitical flashpoints could intermittently stoke haven flows.
