Global markets closed the week still dominated by the same force that has driven sentiment for most of March: the energy shock linked to the war in the Middle East. Reuters reported that global markets are ending a turbulent first quarter with roughly $7 trillion wiped from global stocks since the conflict erupted, while oil and gas prices are up sharply year to date. That backdrop continues to shape everything from inflation expectations to rate pricing and broader risk appetite.
Oil remained one of the market’s biggest pressure points this week. Even though crude was heading for a weekly decline on Friday, prices stayed historically elevated, with Brent around $107.97 and WTI near $94.08 in Reuters reporting. Brent was still up more than 48% since the war began, WTI up 40%, and Reuters said the conflict has taken 11 million barrels a day out of global supply. For markets, that means oil is no longer just a commodity story. It is an inflation story, a growth story and a central bank story all at once.
That pressure has been especially visible in forex. The US dollar was heading for its strongest monthly gain since July 2025, supported by safe haven flows and a sharp repricing in US rate expectations. Reuters said the dollar index was up 2.4% in March, while markets are now pricing in roughly a 70% chance of one quarter point Federal Reserve hike this year, a major reversal from expectations for rate cuts before the conflict began. For forex traders next week, that keeps the focus firmly on inflation sensitive currencies, energy exposed economies and any headlines that change the market’s view on how long this conflict may last.
Gold had a more difficult week than many might expect during a geopolitical crisis. Reuters reported that spot gold rose on Friday to about $4,466.38 an ounce, helped by a softer dollar and bargain buying, but it was still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. The bigger reason is that higher energy prices have fed inflation concerns and pushed rate expectations higher, which has limited demand for a non yielding asset like gold. In other words, gold is still being pulled between safe haven demand and the reality of a more hawkish rates outlook.
For crypto, the weekend now matters because it becomes the market’s clearest real time sentiment barometer while traditional assets pause. Crypto trading remains active around the clock on major venues, and risk appetite has already looked fragile into Friday, with Bitcoin slipping back below the $70,000 area in late week trading as geopolitical nerves persisted. That does not guarantee weekend weakness, but it does mean traders may treat crypto price action as an early read on whether risk sentiment is stabilising or deteriorating before forex and commodities reopen on Monday.
Looking ahead, next week brings several important checkpoints for markets. Reuters flagged flash euro zone inflation data on Tuesday, South Korea trade figures on Wednesday, and the US jobs report on April 3 as major events to watch, alongside US retail sales and manufacturing and services activity data. For forex, oil and gold, the key question is whether incoming data confirms that the energy shock is beginning to affect growth while also keeping inflation elevated. If that combination strengthens, volatility may stay high across currencies, commodities and broader risk assets.
For now, the market message remains clear. Crypto will carry sentiment through the weekend, but the broader tone for next week will still come back to three familiar themes: oil supply risk, inflation pressure and shifting rate expectations. Until those pressures ease, traders should expect markets to remain highly sensitive to both data releases and geopolitical headlines.
