Markets closed this week with a very different tone from the one that dominated early April. Relief over a 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, together with renewed hopes for weekend talks between the United States and Iran, helped investors move away from the most defensive positions. Reuters reported that Asian equities were set for a weekly gain, Wall Street had already returned to record highs, and the dollar continued to give back some of the safe haven strength it built during the worst of the recent energy shock.
Oil remained at the center of the story, even as prices eased. Reuters said Brent fell to about $98.05 a barrel on Friday and WTI to about $93.40 as traders bet that diplomacy could eventually reopen supply channels and reduce the risk of a prolonged disruption. But the market is still far from normal. The Strait of Hormuz has remained shut for seven weeks, and the International Energy Agency warned this week that the conflict has triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, cutting global supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day and turning its 2026 demand outlook into a slight decline.
In FX, the clearest move was a softer US dollar. Reuters reported that the dollar was heading for its second straight weekly loss as traders reduced safe haven positions and rotated back toward currencies such as the euro, sterling, and the Australian dollar. At the same time, the broader rates picture still looks uncertain. Reuters noted that central banks remain cautious because the energy shock has not fully disappeared, while Deutsche Bank said it now expects the Federal Reserve to hold rates through 2026. That leaves currencies entering next week with a familiar tension between improving risk sentiment and the possibility that inflation pressure keeps policy tighter for longer.
Gold held up well in that environment. Spot gold was around $4,797.49 on Friday and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, according to Reuters. The weaker dollar helped, and so did the fact that even improving diplomacy has not removed the wider geopolitical risk premium from markets. Still, gold’s direction remains more balanced than it might appear at first glance. Reuters also pointed out that if peace progress becomes more convincing and energy pressure eases further, gold could face more resistance later in the year.
Crypto now becomes the weekend market to watch. Bitcoin is around $74,798 and Ether around $2,325.47, according to the latest market data. Because crypto keeps trading while most traditional markets pause, it often becomes the fastest live read on weekend sentiment. That is an inference rather than a fixed rule, but in the current environment it matters more than usual, because the next leg for oil, gold and currencies may depend heavily on whether weekend diplomacy produces genuine progress or another round of uncertainty.
Looking ahead, next week’s tone is likely to depend on three things. First, whether talks between the US and Iran produce something more durable than short term optimism. Second, whether oil remains below $100 or quickly turns higher again if supply risks stay unresolved. Third, whether central banks keep sounding patient or start reacting more openly to the inflation impact of the energy shock. The IMF has already downgraded the global growth outlook, and G7 finance leaders said this week that limiting the war’s cost to the global economy is now an urgent priority. That means traders in FX, oil, gold and crypto are still operating in a market that is calmer than before, but not yet truly calm.
