Key Takeaways
- Spot gold started the week above 3,800 with strong momentum, aided by a softer dollar and firm rate-cut expectations.
- Daily RSI in the mid-to-high 70s warns of possible shakeouts even as the broader uptrend holds.
- Resistance: 3,845 to 3,860, then 3,900 to 3,910. Extension targets up to 3,922 on sustained breakout.
- Support: 3,800 to 3,805 first, then 3,790, with a deeper base at 3,760 to 3,745.
- Macro watchlist: NFP on Friday, ISM manufacturing midweek, plus any shutdown headlines that could skew dollar and yields.
- Structural tailwinds include higher ETF holdings and ongoing central bank demand supporting dips.
Market Dynamics and Recent Performance
Gold kicked off the week of September 29 trading at record territory after breaking above 3,800 per ounce. The jump followed benign U.S. PCE inflation for August and a softer dollar, with markets leaning hard toward another Fed rate cut at the late-October meeting. Odds of an additional reduction into December remain elevated. Ongoing chatter about a potential U.S. government shutdown adds an extra safe-haven bid, while ETF holdings ticked higher to start the week. Central bank appetite, particularly from emerging markets, continues to provide a sturdy floor for dips.
Technical and Fundamental Influences
On the daily chart, momentum is hot. The 14-day RSI sits deep in overbought territory in the mid-to-high 70s, which argues for two-way trade even as the broader trend stays bullish. Price is holding well above the 20-day SMA and the 100-day EMA, keeping the structure of higher highs and higher lows intact.
Immediate resistance sits in the 3,845 to 3,860 band, with extension targets clustered near 3,900 to 3,910 if bulls can secure a daily close above 3,850. A measured move using the most recent breakout leg points toward 3,906 to 3,922 as stretch objectives this week if momentum persists.
On the downside, first support is 3,800 to 3,805, then 3,790, followed by a stronger shelf at 3,760 to 3,745 where prior highs and short-term moving averages converge. A daily close below 3,745 would open a corrective window toward 3,700 to 3,690, which aligns with trend support and a shallow Fibonacci retrace of the September surge.
From the macro side, the U.S. dollar cooled toward the 98 handle to start the week, reinforcing gold’s early strength. Fed expectations are the core driver: the market prices a high probability of another cut on October 29 and keeps meaningful odds for December. If payrolls land soft or are delayed by a shutdown, rate-cut bets could firm and keep dips shallow. Conversely, a resilient labor print or firm ISM could spark a dollar bounce and nudge bullion into consolidation. ETF inflows and persistent central bank buying remain supportive undercurrents that have characterized 2025’s relentless climb.
Looking Forward
The playbook this week is momentum-with-risk-management. Bulls will look for acceptance above 3,850 to press toward 3,900 plus. If intraday upside stalls and RSI remains stretched, a fade into 3,800 to 3,790 could attract dip buyers, especially ahead of Friday’s jobs risk. Any surprise re-acceleration in U.S. growth proxies or a durable dollar rebound would likely shift focus to 3,760 to 3,745 and test the market’s appetite to defend the breakout base.
Until the trend structure breaks, the bias stays up, but traders should respect overbought conditions and headline risk. Think staggered take-profits into resistance and tight invalidation below the 3,790 shelf, widening only if the market builds a higher base above 3,800 on closing terms.
